白露

二 |     NEW YORK -- The yield on the 10-year Treasury has reached 5% for the first time since 2007. That matters for everyone, not just Wall Street. Treasury yields have been climbing rapidly, with the 10-year yield rallying from less than 3.50% during the spring and from just 0.50% early in the pandemic. Monday morning, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was at 4.96% after hitting 5.02% earlier. The jump means the U.S. government must pay more to borrow money from investors to cover its spending.It also directly affects people around the world, because the 10-year Treasury yield is the centerpiece of the global financial system and helps set prices for all kinds of other loans and investments. Besides making it more expensive for U.S. homebuyers to buy a house with a mortgage, higher yields also put downward pressure on prices for everything from stocks to cryptocurrencies. Eventually, they could help cause companies to lay off more workers. Higher yields mark a sharp turnaround for a generation of consumers and investors who have known pretty much just low yields, as central banks kept benchmark interest rates pinned at nearly zero. Such low rates let people borrow money more easily, which helped economies to strengthen following the 2008 financial crisis, the European debt crisis and other maladies including, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. The low rates led to rising prices for houses, stocks and other investments, but they may also have encouraged too much risk-taking and spurred investment bubbles.Now, central banks are more concerned with getting high inflation under control. To do that, they raise interest rates and hope the higher costs to borrow will starve inflation of its fuel by bringing down spending. The Fed's main interest rate affects extremely short-term loans, those that banks charge overnight. The Fed has already pulled its federal funds rate to the highest level since 2001, and it's debating whether to hike it one more time. Either way, it's signaled plans to keep rates high for a while to successfully suffocate inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield has been catching up to the Fed's main interest rate after a string of reports has shown the U.S. economy remains remarkably resilient. While that calms worries about a possible recession caused by high rates, it could also keep upward pressure on inflation and shorter-term rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that many other factors could be contributing to the swift rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. They include the U.S. government's big deficits, which require more federal borrowing, and the Fed's ongoing efforts to reduce its trove of bond investments built earlier to keep yields low. On the wonkier side, bond prices have also been falling in tandem with stock prices more often than they used to. That's unnerving for investors who usually see bonds as the safer part of their portfolios, and it could be pushing them to demand higher yields to own them.The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield most directly means the U.S. government has to pay more to borrow money for 10 years. But because the 10-year yield is the reference point for financial markets, it also quickly filters out into all kinds of loans. Even for companies with the best credit ratings, the interest rates they borrow at are set by adding some extra on top of whatever the U.S. government is paying for its Treasurys. Borrowers with worse credit ratings have to pay more extra than those seen as good bets to repay their debts.More expensive borrowing keep U.S. households from spending as much and companies from expanding as much, which should eventually hit overall U.S. economic activity. More immediately, because a 10-year Treasury is seen as one of the safest possible investments on the planet, its yield swiftly sways prices for all kinds of investments. When a super-safe Treasury is paying much more in interest, investors feel less need to pay high prices for a Big Tech stocks, cryptocurrency or other investment that carries more risk. It's a big reason the S&P 500 has seen its gain for the year so far tumble from 19.5% at the end of July to 10% as of Friday. Higher U.S. yields also attract more investments from abroad, which means investors are increasingly swapping their currencies for U.S. dollars. Since the end of July, the U.S. dollar has climbed roughly 4% against the euro, 5% against the British pound and 6% against the Australian dollar. While a stronger dollar helps U.S. tourists buy more stuff when they're abroad, it can also add financial pressure and heighten inflation for other countries, particularly in the developing world. Even for U.S. bond investors, the swift rise in bond yields has brought losses of their own. When new bonds are paying higher yields, it makes the older, lower-yielding bonds already sitting in investors' portfolios or mutual funds less attractive and knocks down their price.The largest U.S. bond mutual fund has lost roughly 3% so far in 2023 and is on track for a third straight yearly loss. That's never happened since its birth in 1987.。2026比利·简·金杯深圳总决赛中国队名单公布：队长郑洁，队员郑钦文、王曦雨、张帅、郭涵煜、蒋欣玗——唯独没有王欣瑜。消息一出，评论区直接炸了。道理似乎明摆着：本赛季状态和排名都更靠前的，明明是王欣瑜。她现在是国内单打排名第一，稳居世界前40；而被选中的郑钦文，伤愈复出后多站赛事起伏不定，积分滑落到百名开外，正处在公认的"低谷期"。

三 | 放着排名第一的选手不用，去带一个排名一百开外的，这选拔标准到底是按什么排的？于是，"有内幕"的猜测像野草一样疯长——是不是论资排辈？是不是看名气？是不是谁人气高谁上？王欣瑜自己的反应，反而把局面推到了更微妙的位置。她在社交媒体上写："无法在家乡参加比利·简·金杯决赛，这让我感到意外。代表国家参赛一直是我的首要任务。

四 | 我尊重这一决定，也感到失望。我的初心不变，未来我会继续努力。"一个球员用"意外"来形容落选，本身就说明她自己也没想到。这下外界更来劲了：连当事人都觉得意外，那这名单到底怎么定出来的？说实话，我完全理解这种愤怒。从"谁状态好谁上"的朴素逻辑看，王欣瑜确实更该进。她这一年的硬仗打得比谁都多，排名是实打实打出来的，凭什么要让位给一个刚刚伤愈、还在找手感的人？这种质疑，不是无理取闹，是球迷对"公平"最本能的期待。但我也想泼一盆冷静的水：团体赛的名单，从来不是排排行榜。郑洁是谁？是身高不到一米六五、带着严重脚踝伤站上温网领奖台的大满贯女双冠军。她不是循规蹈矩的人，当年打球就认准方向绝不回头。这次顶着"放着排名第一的选手不用"的骂声调整阵容，恰恰是她作为队长最果断的地方——她比谁都清楚，去年对阵意大利，中国队到底是输在了哪。回想去年深圳春茧那场四分之一决赛，至今是很多球迷的意难平：袁悦对阵科恰雷托，第二盘5-2领先、手握3个盘点，却被连追5局逆转；王欣瑜面对保利尼，首盘先声夺人，第二盘抢七拿到盘点后被翻盘，决胜盘领先也没守住。两场球，两次在领先局面下被翻盘。中国队不是实力不如对手，而是在意大利人最擅长的缠斗节奏里，把胜利主动权一点点交了出去。而意大利队的单打选手，最擅长的就是磨关键分。哪怕你拿到盘点，只要没赢下，她们就能把比赛拖进自己的节奏。王欣瑜和袁悦恰恰在去年的硬仗里，暴露了关键分处理急躁、领先局面下体能分配不合理的短板——同样阵容再打一次，很可能重蹈覆辙。再看场地。

五 | 本届赛事是室内硬地，封闭场馆无风干扰，球速更快、弹跳规律稳定，完全不同于室外红土、草地的多变。这正是郑钦文的"本命赛场"：她职业生涯硬地胜率高达62%，高于红土的58%和草地的55%。

六 | 她标志性的暴力平击发球、正手重轰，在室内硬地的快节奏加持下威胁会被成倍放大，根本不给意大利选手擅长的底线缠斗留空间。很多人只盯着她现在排名百名开外，却忘了她在巴黎奥运会一路连克种子、爆冷夺冠的韧性——那种落后局面下完成逆转的大赛气质，恰恰是意大利队最忌惮的特质。更关键的是，只要披上国家队战袍，郑钦文总能爆发出比巡回赛更强的战斗力，团体赛的使命感会把她的上限拉到难以预估的高度。所以你看，郑洁这步棋，赌的不是"现在的排名"，而是"对意大利这一场的克制力"。当然，我也要说句公道话：外界猜"内幕"，本质上伤的是信任。中国网球好不容易靠李娜、郑钦文、王欣瑜这批人把热度做起来，选拔一旦显得不透明，最寒心的是球迷，其次就是球员本人。王欣瑜那句"意外和失望"，值得决策者认真对待——哪怕决定是对的，沟通也可以更充分。让落选的人心服，让入选的人无包袱，这才是强队该有的样子。至于"内幕"——在没有任何实锤之前，那不过是一场情绪的宣泄。真正的答案，八月的深圳见分晓。

七 | （罗掌柜）