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十二生肖

逆势拉升!猪肉概念早盘大涨 产能去化有望加速_我的网站

神雕侠侣

A |       8月25日早盘,两市震荡调整,猪肉概念逆势拉升,截至早间收盘,板块上涨1.71%,涨幅居概念板块前列。    

    
Two Y-20B large transport aircraft fl y in the sky. Photo: VCG
    Two Y-20B large transport aircraft fl y in the sky. Photo: VCG
A documentary on the domestically developed Y-20 large transport aircraft family, aired by state media on Wednesday evening, revealed that the Y-20B can switch between transport and aerial refueling functions. A pilot said the aircraft could also take on roles including bomber, early warning aircraft and electronic warfare platform. 
With such modifications, the Y-20B platform offers significant advantages in mission flexibility and support capabilities, a military affairs expert told the Global Times.
According to the video released by state broadcaster CCTV News, since the Y-20 was equipped with the domestically developed high-bypass-ratio turbofan WS-20 engine - nicknamed "Chinese heart" - the Y-20B's mission profile has become more flexible. While it is primarily a transport aircraft, it can be quickly converted into an aerial refueling tanker by adding refueling pods and related kits. The line between transport and tanker aircraft is increasingly blurred, and this has significantly expanded the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force's tanker fleet.
Previously, a promotional video released by China Military Bugle, an official media account affiliated with the PLA news media center, showed that in 2025, the Y-20B was fitted with the WS-20, making it more powerful, more fuel-efficient, longer-ranged and part of a growing family of aircraft.
In the CCTV documentary, Pang Rongqi, a member of an Air Force aviation unit, said: "As a transport aircraft platform, the Y-20 is unique to our country and will play an increasingly important role in the future. The boundaries between transport aircraft and bombers, early warning aircraft, or even electronic warfare aircraft are becoming increasingly blurred. It is possible that all these missions could be accomplished with our transport aircraft platform."
Song Zhongping, a Chinese military affairs expert, told the Global Times on Thursday that the key message from this official release is that the Y-20B is a multi-role platform capable of rapid switching between transport and refueling functions. 
The fully domestically developed Y-20B itself is an integrated transport-tanker platform, embodying the concept of a multi-role tanker transport (MRTT). By equipping different functional pods, it can quickly change roles: With refueling pods, it becomes a tanker; with electronic jamming pods, it becomes an electronic warfare platform; with bombing modules, it could potentially perform bombing missions; and with early warning modules, it can serve as an airborne early warning platform, Song said.
It is not uncommon internationally to modify transport aircraft for special roles, including bomber-like missions. In March 2021, the US Air Force converted an MC-130J transport aircraft into a bomber by having it drop a JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) deployment box, according to a Forbes report in May 2021. 
Thanks to the Y-20's fully indigenous design, Song said, Chinese engineers have a comprehensive understanding of its aerodynamic configuration, airframe structure, flight control and avionics systems. This means that, as long as the technical conditions are met, modifications can be carried out with greater flexibility and tailored to operational needs. Whether it is a "quick-change" multi-role configuration through pod-based modularization, or deeper modifications, such as installing large radar domes for dedicated early warning aircraft or adding more fuel tanks for dedicated tankers, all can be flexibly achieved.
Song also said that the Y-20B can quickly switch between transport, tanker and electronic warfare roles by mounting different pods, achieving multi-role capability and greatly enhancing the PLA Air Force's mission flexibility and support efficiency.
Its platform potential is vast. It can be deeply modified into dedicated special mission aircraft such as early warning or electronic warfare platforms, filling critical capability gaps in the Air Force. At the same time, it can maintain its basic transport function and, when needed, rapidly transform into other combat platforms through modularization, becoming a true all-rounder.
The core value of this flexibility is that it allows rapid reconfiguration based on wartime mission requirements, while in peacetime it can perform routine transport missions, maximizing equipment effectiveness. The Y-20B's service not only represents a leap in China's strategic projection capability but also provides critical support for the PLA Air Force in building a systematic and diversified air capability, Song noted.
On July 6, 2016, the Y-20, China's domestically developed next-generation large military transport aircraft, officially entered service with PLA Air Force aviation units. A decade later, the Y-20 has evolved from a single transport platform into a family of models including the Y-20A, Y-20B and YU-20 aerial refueling tanker, with its operations extending to more than 40 countries and regions across four continents, according to the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, the aircraft's manufacturer, on its WeChat account in June 2026.
。个股方面,金字火腿涨近6%,ST龙大涨超5%,西部牧业、大禹生物涨超4%,神农集团涨超3%,顺鑫农业、唐人神、温氏股份、克明食品、得利斯、新五丰、牧原股份、大北农等多股涨超2%。

B |   短期供给压力有所缓解  消息方面,生猪价格近期已有所反弹。

C | 据博亚和讯数据,8月中旬全国外三元生猪均价从10.30元/公斤最高冲到11.27元/公斤,走出一轮8连涨;最近23个交易日小幅回调,但仍维持在11.11元的近期高位。  供应端是支撑当前猪价反弹的核心驱动力。前期能繁母猪存栏量持续去化的传导效应,正逐步在商品猪出栏端显现。截至2026年二季度末,全国能繁母猪存栏量已降至3780万头,距离3750万头的国家合理保有量目标仅一步之遥。  与此同时,生猪出栏体重呈现结构性下降。受夏季高温天气影响,生猪的日增重速度放缓,增重成本显著高于春秋季节。行业已连续三个季度处于深度亏损状态,养殖端资金压力大幅增加,普遍放弃压栏增重,转而选择降重出栏以减少亏损。

D | 此外,政策端对二次育肥的严格管控使得大猪供应明显收缩、标肥价差收窄,有效缓解了短期供给压力。  产能去化有望加速  需求端方面,华龙期货指出,立秋后天气转凉,开学季备货和双节预期带动屠宰开工率低位回升,冻品库存周环比延续下滑。不过当前需求增量尚不足以驱动趋势性反转,短期猪价在标肥价差和压栏情绪支撑下仍具韧性,但8月下旬出栏压力释放和二育出栏窗口临近将限制上方空间。

E |   方正证券认为,从周期角度看,(生猪)产能去化有望进一步加速,拐点仍需等待。养殖端自繁自养亏损幅度明显扩大,行业现金流持续承压,能繁母猪产能去化稳步推进。股价角度,悲观预期已较充分,板块具备安全边际。养殖板块经历前期调整,当前估值处于历史低位。  A股方面,自6月25日创下年内低点至今,申万生猪养殖板块已累计反弹超16%,11只成分股中10只上涨,仅京基智农1股下跌。上涨成分股中,神农集团涨幅最大,超28%;牧原股份次之,涨超22%;温氏股份、新五丰、东瑞股份、巨星农牧、天邦食品等6股均涨超10%。(文章来源:东方财富研究中心)。

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Published on:09:35:30


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